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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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