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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."